No Change in the Horizon – Yet Another Liberal Minority
Disclaimer: The following article was written on the evening of Monday, September 20 and edited on the morning of Tuesday, September 21. Preliminary results are subject to change as votes are still being counted.
After 36 days of campaigning, three fierce debates, and generous promises, the Canadian federal election has officially ended. On Monday, September 20, at 11:13 PM, CBC News/Radio-Canada, CTV News and Global News projected that the governing Liberal Party of Canada under incumbent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has officially won the 44th Canadian federal election with another minority government.
Seeking a third electoral mandate since November 2015, the Liberal Party of Canada is currently leading in 158 ridings, less than 170 seats from the 338 at the House of Commons required to form a majority. The Liberal’s victory came at the cost of losing three cabinet ministers; Gender Equality Minister Maryam Monsef, Seniors Minister Deb Schulte and Fisheries Minister Bernadette Jordan.
Erin O’Toole’s Conservative Party of Canada will once again be the Official Opposition at Parliament with 119 seats. While making a couple of gains in Eastern Ontario and Atlantic Canada, the Tories lost many constituencies to both the Liberals and the NDP in Alberta, British Columbia and the Greater Toronto Area. Like in 2019, the Conservative Party leads in the popular vote with 34% compared to the Liberal’s 32%.
Yves-François Blanchet’s Bloc Québécois is projected to form the third-largest caucus at the House of Commons with 33 seats. The Bloc gained the South Shore riding of Châteauguay—Lacolle from the Liberals.
Jagmeet Singh’s New Democratic Party will most likely create a caucus in conjunction with the Liberals, with its projected 25 MPs. Despite losing Hamilton—Mountain and St. John’s East, its only seat in Atlantic Canada, the New Democrats made some gains in Edmonton—Griesbach, Port-Moody—Coquitlam and Nanaimo—Ladysmith.
To add, the Green Party has won only two ridings: Saanich—Gulf Islands and Kitchener Centre. Leader Annamie Paul has lost her election bid, finishing fourth-place in the riding of Toronto Centre.
Despite gaining 5% of the popular vote (more than the Green Party at 2%), the People’s Party of Canada has not won any constituency, including Beauce, where its leader, Maxime Bernier, was attempting to return to the House of Commons.
If looking at the last 2019 election, the results are pretty similar: the Liberals held 157 seats, the Tories at 121, the New Democrats at 24, the Bloquistes at 32, and the Greens at 3. In other words, it is almost a copy-paste of the last federal election as the votes are virtually the same as the nearest percentage.
When a government is in a minority situation, it must create coalitions or work with other parties to pass bills and laws. Therefore, Trudeau cannot do anything he desires as he always needs to cooperate with another party.
Many political analysts are questioning Trudeau’s call on the elections during the pandemic since the results are almost unchanged. Indeed, with the election costing $600 million, many have criticized that the money could have been invested in the health sector, which is in deep need of employees, with Covid-19 cases increasing by 11,8% across the country.
With almost no change in Ottawa, Canadian politics will stay practically the same as the power relations are roughly the same. The people have spoken and decided to keep the same government that has been in power for the last two years.
By Camila Lewandowski and Jacques Wang